NFL Week 14: Biggest Fantasy Contests and Best Value Picks

Image credit: Giovanni Arteaga

The bye weeks are all over and we have four more weeks of regular season play in the NFL. That means four more Sunday Millions at FanDuel, four more Millionaire makers at DraftKings and four more weeks’ worth of opportunities to earn a share of the massive prize pools that are divvied out to real people every week.

There is now quite a bit of data to draw from and it is always fun to draft lineups with a clearer sense of purpose and confidence. The data is out there and the winning lineup is at your fingertips. As per custom, today’s post will discuss the biggest fantasy contests and offer suggestions for value picks at each position in an effort to help you draft a winning lineup.

All season long, the best fantasy football sites have been FanDuel and DraftKings by a long shot. The same remains true for NFL Week 14. Both fantasy sites have slowed down their promotional offerings as we enter the final stretch, but you can still take advantage of the welcome bonuses offered by both DFS sites if you don’t already have an account at one or the other.

Here are the biggest contests happening at both.

FanDuel: $1.2M Sunday Million

  • Entry: $25
  • Total Entries: 56,470
  • First Place: $200,000
  • Places Paid: 13,013
  • Enter Now:

FanDuel: $750K NFL Sling TV Rush

  • Entry: $5
  • Total Entries: 176,470
  • First Place: $100,000
  • Places Paid: 37,360
  • Enter Now:

FanDuel: $125K Single Entry Series Spike

  • Entry: $5
  • Total Entries: 29,411
  • First Place: $12,000
  • Places Paid: 5,810
  • Enter Now:

FanDuel: $140K Single Entry Series Hot Route

  • Entry: $50
  • Total Entries: 3,182
  • First Place: $15,000
  • Places Paid: 676
  • Enter Now:

DraftKings: $3.6M Fantasy Football Millionaire

  • Entry: $27
  • Total Entries: 154,100
  • First Place: $1,000,000
  • Places Paid: 41,395
  • Enter Now:

DraftKings: NFL $1.15M Play-Action

  • Entry: $3
  • Total Entries: 450,900
  • First Place: $50,000
  • Places Paid: 127,100
  • Enter Now:

DraftKings: NFL $1.4M Wildcat

  • Entry: $333
  • Total Entries: 4,671
  • First Place: $150,000
  • Places Paid: 1,050
  • Enter Now:

DraftKings: Casual NFL $315K Flea Flicker

Note: This contest is open only to casual players. If you have an experience badge, you will not be able to enter.

  • Entry: $5
  • Total Entries: 74,100
  • First Place: $25,000
  • Places Paid: 19,460
  • Enter now:

NFL Week 14 Value Picks

Our value picks each week are designed to get the most bang for your buck, not to give you guaranteed fantasy points. You already know you can draft a Tom Brady at the quarterback position whenever price is not a factor.

Our goal here is not to make the obvious picks, but to identify lower-cost, high-upside players in each position in order to save money back so you can splurge in other positions. There is only so much money to go around, and you will need to take a few smart risks in order to have a shot at picking a breakout player. These are not rock bottom players we’re looking at, but they definitely aren’t the most expensive at any position.

This is an important concept in GPPs because you need to stand out from the pack to make it into the high-paying finishing places. Going with the safe bets every time is a good way to put yourself in the middle of the pack to finish in average or slightly above average position occasionally. Over the long run, this is a losing strategy. It is better to crash out of the money in 9 GPPs and then win the 10th than it is to consistently finish near the 50% mark.

That’s not to say we want to be reckless with our lineups. Daily fantasy is a game of skill and you should have a specific purpose for every lineup decision you make. Our Week 14 picks below attempt to get the most money for your fantasy dollar.

Best Value Quarterbacks

Kirk Cousins ($7600 FanDuel / $6300 DraftKings) of the Washington Redskins has a more favorable matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles than what the DraftKings lobby indicates. The Eagles may be 13th against the pass on the year, but their recent games are dragging that statistic down quickly in a defense that has turned from strength to weakness over the course of this season.

Over the last two games, the Eagles defense has given up 645 passing yards with zero interceptions and zero sacks while earning a grand total of 3 fantasy points over that stretch. Kirk Cousins looks like a solid pick against a struggling defense and one that casual players who simply look at the matchup rating in the draft lobby are likely to miss.

Andy Dalton ($7700 FanDuel / $6100 DraftKings) of the Cincinnati Bengals has a great matchup against the Cleveland Browns who rank 21st against the pass, 31st in yards allowed per game and 31st in points allowed per game. He was good for 332 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions against the Eagles last week and now has an even better matchup against the Browns this week.

The Browns defense did look a little stronger against the Giants in Week 12, had a bye last week for a chance to refocus their defensive effort and may be more optimistic with RGIII returning to play, but this is still a struggling defense overall that hasn’t earned more than 5 fantasy points since Week 3.

Running Backs

Jeremy Hill ($6900 FanDuel / $5800 DraftKings) of the Cincinnati Bengals is an obvious choice as he faces the Cleveland Browns and their 31st-in-the-league ranking against opposing running backs. Ownership percentages will probably reflect this, but he is a good way down the list and his game log doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. However, his season high of 30.2 fantasy points came against the Cleveland Browns in Week 7.

DeMarco Murray ($7900 FanDuel / $7000 DraftKings) of the Tennessee Titans is a bit on the expensive side, but he faces the Denver Broncos who rank 28th in the league against the run. The Broncos also rank 1st against the pass and that gives DeMarco Murray even more upside.

The downside is you will be far from the only person drafting DeMarco Murray for these very reasons. His ownership percentage will be high, but he might be worth it anyways.

Wide Receivers

Doug Baldwin ($7000 FanDuel / $6800 DraftKings) of the Seattle Seahawks is averaging 16 fantasy points per game at DraftKings and 12.6 at FanDuel, but he does occasionally put up a huge game and matches well against the Green Bay Packers and their iffy secondary. The Packers defense did improve over the last two weeks in limiting both the Texans and Eagles to 13 points, but this time did also experience a 4-game stretch before that in which they gave up 33, 31, 47 and 42 points.

The downside to Doug Baldwin is that he hasn’t caught for a touchdown in three games (against Carolina, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia) since his three-touchdown game in Week 10 against New England. On the upside, Baldwin is not going to be seeing large ownership percentages this week.

Jordy Nelson ($7100 FanDuel / $6800 DraftKings) of the Green Bay Packers will be overlooked by those not paying too much attention. The Seattle defense has been tough all year, but they just lost a critical component last week as five-time Pro Bowl safety Earl Thomas broke his leg and will go out for the season. On Sunday, the Seahawks will play their first game without Thomas.

If you want to cut back even further on your wide receiver salary and still try to take advantage of the Seahawks’ misfortune, you could opt for Davante Adams ($6400 FanDuel / $5500 DraftKings) of Green Bay.

He scored 2.2 fantasy points last week but has a history of blowing up big after low-fantasy-point-scoring games. He scored 5.4 fantasy points in Week 6 against Dallas and then turned around for 41.2 points in Week 7 against Chicago (DraftKings scoring). He earned 7.2 points in Week 11 and then racked up 31.3 in Week 12.

Now with the interesting Seahawks situation, Davante Adams might be a worthwhile target. If the Seahawks keep Richard Sherman busy with Jordy Nelson, this might be another big scoring game for Adams. It’s a risky play for sure, but he’s also a guy very likely to have low ownership percentages given his lack of name recognition and the scary looking red “8th” in the OPRK column next to his name in the drafting lobby.

Tight Ends

Tyler Eifert ($6700 FanDuel / $6000 DraftKings) of the Cincinnati Bengals has one big upside and one big downside. On the upside, he faces the Cleveland Browns who rank 31st in the league in overall defense, 31st against the rush and 21st against the pass. The big downside is that he is listed right at the top of the list of tight ends at both FanDuel and DraftKings so his ownership percentage will be very high.

Coby Fleener ($5300 FanDuel / $3700 DraftKings) is super cheap but has put up decent fantasy numbers a few time this season. He most recently caught for 86 yards on 7 targets/5 receptions against the Lions. Furthermore, tight end Josh Hill suffered a broken fibula in Week 13 and that could result in even more production for Coby Fleener.